HostHostDeFi › Features › Predictions
Prediction markets, priced in SOL
Elections, prices, launches, sports — markets where the price is a crowd's estimate. HostDeFi's predictions page lets you buy and sell outcome shares in SOL in a single signature, without holding USDC or bridging anywhere.
An outcome share is a claim on a yes-or-no event: it pays out in full if the event happens and expires worthless if it doesn't, so the price between zero and one is the market's running estimate. The predictions page is a SOL-native front end to that market — you bring SOL, you take a position, you get SOL back.
What's under the hood
The desk rides the Jupiter Prediction API, which aggregates event-market liquidity from venues including Polymarket and Kalshi. Positions are USDC-settled instruments underneath — but the page folds the conversions inside the transaction itself: SOL goes in, the swap and the share purchase land atomically, and a failed leg reverts the whole thing rather than leaving you half-converted. Selling early or claiming a win runs the same path in reverse, back to SOL.
Costs — and what the price is not
Entry costs a flat 1%, shown before you sign, split with a referrer when one exists. What you do not pay is a custody fee: positions live on-chain against the market, not on a balance sheet here. The bigger cost to understand is structural — the displayed odds are a price people paid, not a probability anyone promised, and on a thin market a modest order is the price move.
The honest limit: event markets carry a different risk than token risk — you're trading resolution rules and liquidity depth, not contract authorities. Read a market's resolution source and check its depth before sizing, the same way you'd check a pool. For the mechanics, see how prediction market odds work.
Trading a market about a token?
If the outcome hinges on a token surviving, read its contract first — the scan tells you what the market can't.
Frequently asked
Where does the market liquidity come from?
The Jupiter Prediction API aggregates event markets from venues including Polymarket and Kalshi, so a single market can draw depth from more than one book. The page shows the market's own price and depth rather than a synthetic quote.
What do I pay to take a position?
A flat 1% on entry, shown before you sign — half goes to a referrer on-chain when a referral exists. No custody or settlement fee sits on top; the position lives on-chain.
Can I sell before the market resolves?
Yes — positions sell back through the same atomic path before resolution, so you can take a price move without waiting for the event. Or hold to resolution and claim the payout in SOL.
Do I need USDC or another wallet?
No — you only ever hold SOL. The USDC settlement underneath is handled inside the transaction: your SOL converts, buys, and converts back as one atomic step that reverts in full if any leg fails.